Thursday, December 07, 2006

iPhone: Wimax and Webpage browsing

I say:

iPhone is all about Wimax and better internet browsability on smaller screen. For apple to succeed in this market, it has to solve user dilemma on similar lines as they did in music market.

Software: They'll provide a simple and very easier format to reimage the web pages on iPhone to make it great experience for people. He may open simple click and play APIs to developers where they have their web pages look awesome.

Tech: Wimax is endorsed by Intel and wants it to desperately succeed and it gives apple leapfrogging scenario compared to other mobile phone manufacturers. Intel wants it for people to browse internet.

No one has been able to solve this dilemma and everyone from different spheres of businesses have taken shot at at. Example: Nokia, Sony

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Dell Results: PC is over

Dell quarterly results are good and have beated the analyst expectations. The stock is up 10%. I like it.

But I don't understand people are still not reading between the lines.

Desktop lost the market. US enterprise sales were lower. Sales increase was meager. PC is dead. If overseas growth is anchor point, then also overseas market wont be able to provide much needed growth.

PC in US is going away. So Dell will loose money in desktop side, which is 60% revenue. Its hard to believe about margin play talk that they admitted to happen intentionally. Dell should spin off or sell off its PC desktop business and concentrate on laptops and servers. Stock price will keep shooting upward. US sales will come more under pressure going forward.

If overseas PC growth will help PC desktop. I doubt it. There will be growth but less than historical standards seen in US or other developed economies. All emerging economies leapfrogged with Mobile and VoIP. Devices with these features are miniPC currently. More and more focus will be put on making them more like PC. PC will be lost and then fight is between form factor of laptops, cell phones or PDAs ( includes iPOD, Zune, PSP).

I hope PC companies realize it and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Microsoft Vista/ Wii Disney

Two news came out last week, which state " Demise of PC"

Microsoft: We are done with Vista. ( Means: Our resources are now getting dedicated to Live). Windows on PC is done. Its going to be Live on Web. "Vista is done"

Disney: Disney has dedicated studio for Wii. This means Apple Mac Mini is not doing good. 3 years down the lane, nintendo will be bought by apple. "Wii/Disney/Apple"

I think I'll draw this conclusion. Web solution for PS3 online will be provided by google as Sony has an achilles heel there with Microsoft in lead with Xbox 360 live. Also, Sony codeveloped hardware with IBM and now IBM is selling google solutions through IBM services.

Microsoft Xbox 360 LIVE / Sony IBM Google PS3 GMAIL / Apple Disney Nintendo Wii iLife

What happens to PC? PC manufacturers are going to suffer more and more. Desktop PC is on decline.

Will write more.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

another delay in vista

As I wrote earlier about imminent delay of Vista and masses and websites now pouring over and running their own customized news, I want to talk about this delay.

Delay means not reaching market at right time. Microsoft 95, 2K, 2K3 were never perfect softwares but were released in the market due to the competitive pressures and market growth. Desktop/laptop growth was higher than current adoption rate. Vista is more now as replacement OS.
Delay is imminent but I think it shouldnt be done. Engineers/Engineering community will always be obssessed with near perfection and they also know nothing is PERFECT in the world. Vista is very large and complex project which doesnt need to be 100% perfect to work. It needs to work and run according to its main objective rather than the experimentation which small number of people will do. Windows 95, Windows 2K and Windows 2K3 just did that.

Engineering perfection obessesion will leave Vista in labs for endless time and it'll keep on delaying. People can comment that it has to be delayed to work to perfection, everything but after a point a decision has to be made to release it. Sooner or better. Vista is supposed to work with everything which is impossible.
This strategy can never work. Google keeps everything beta just to avoid this embarrasment. Gmail will never get official release but remain beta and engineers/ITs will never be able to say anything.

Classic marketing/business/engineering/product case study.

Monday, July 24, 2006

AMD buys ATI.

Simple beyond the lines.

Read further from the news headlines.

Apple/Intel, Micrsoft/IBM ( co-existence of ATIMD), SONY /IBM ( NVIDIA), DELL/HP/GATEWAY/OFF SHELF CREATORS? ????????.

I dont see AMD in above list. If x86 has to survive with PC dying market, it has to have interoperable and seamless X86 extension into consumer market. Thats where AMD picked ATI for all other left x86 players to fight for the upcoming digital consumer market.
Its industry driven. Manufacturing synergies and advantages ( IBM/AMD - BIG + for Microsoft). Can xbox360 work with PCs with ATI graphics cards seamlessly as the interoperability of two processor families from same company wont be question?

Also, after looking at ATI website, its very obvious that AMD didnt buy it for GPU, it bought them for handheld and TV market. The company has impressive clientiel and would like to synergies of AUDIO/VIDEO streaming, editing across all technology products related to customers.

HECTOR RUIZ comes back to work with Motorola, one of major ATI clientiel, which he left to resurrect AMD. Life comes full circle sometimes. :)

Its ironical, Intel left the communication market after investing 10 billions dollars over 10 years and AMD is entering it now. I think its right time, right place and right move.

Analysts are idiots to figure this out. They can't think beyond quarters and they suffer with short term vision problem.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Intel laying off 1000 managers

Its headline everywhere, but its deepest impact is on business schools, managers and executive. This act empowers entreprenuership, a company's acknowledgement that its talent is not at fault for failure and recklessly letting them go is not the path to success.

This is first time Paul Otellini impressed me. Any company's success lies in its individual contributor who are frustrated and are not able to perform in their fast mode everything possible to succeed. In nutshell, competition translates individual's fight in market against another individual. If an individual is not able to reach the market faster on his will to strike against its perceived competitor, it'll frustrate him. I think Paul understands that.

I would like to see how Hector Ruiz re-charges his army and fights back. Amunition and artillery is there but it has to be more guided and precise. In last, every company will meet resistance on path of success.

Dawn to Dusk and then again

Its a natural pattern which touches every living being. Its a metaphor used in human lifes " Chadhta Suraj". ( rising sun)

A person while ascending in success is known everywhere. Everyone likes to discuss him, debate him, etc. But then when he goes down for a while, same people just think its over, the phenomen started and had died. No more same sun will ever rise.
Its ironical, that night after dusk makes people believe that. But when he rises again; people again talk about him and compare it with previous day. Person hitting a rough patch, a low time, doesnt necessarily translate his doom. He can come back and can rise, example: Amitabh Bachan, Alonzo Mourning and many others whom I dont know.

A person going through rough and hard time doesnt translate to his inability. As my father always says: time is never same, it changes, it shows all colors. Dont let a person's resolve die or waver. Sun will rise and then again it'll be noticed.

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Steve Jobs is hurt as Bill Gates left

Steve may smile or may hate it. It was Bill and its troop who brought Apple down in 80’s. MSFT shunned them out of mass limelight and deprived of wealth and fortunes.

This time with next showdown to happen in industry now, Steve Jobs is pretty confident that he is going to succeed against Bill and his troops (not MSFT). His execution is coming out perfected. Situation is that there are adversaries and then Bill is there to fight who could never be brought down by anyone. Its Steve time that he'll lead and Bill will follow, but suddenly Bill left, so what now?

Apple is safer to execute its strategy and take command. I am sure they'll do it.

But there are different questions which arise now and bother technology visionaries and leaders more than common people and analysts:

Apple will be leader but they didn’t have a competitor who could bring them down. Steve with his success will always be bothered now when he'll ask himself “What would have happened if Bill was still there? I wanted to have that showdown to let people know that not only I have awesome vision but also excellent business execution. Bill left. People and I think that would Apple achieved same success if he would be leading his troops from Washington?"

"You can try to achieve success but success will come on its own terms"

Microsoft on path of being another IBM


Microsoft, a phenomenon, albeit more hated for its monopolistic behaviour but also loved for delivering its stockholders and employees immense wealth until tech boom meltdown.

Microsoft was young versatile and aggressive company in 80's and 90' s with mentality of winning. The passion remains there but drivers are tired of running on same path again and again. So to make it interesting do some crashes and stunts to get people notice that they are vulnerable or not see next highway exit and get lost to figure how to reach it back. Aging and overweight shows there.

Its IBM of 80's where it was challenged by new players. New microsoft execs have fantastic credential but everyone in 80's IBM had same for their times but they lost. Wasn't OS/2 superb but didn't succeed. It was there in every IBM customer's shop and was sold to them but no new customer came and that led to its demise.

As GOOGLE says " We don't look at past, its future we work towards" and they try to figure future by themselves, which Microsoft and Intel did in 80's and 90's and ultimately led to IBM meltdown.

Compare any great company with visionary left, what happened to it. Company closed down or was saved and is only delivering on quarterly and yearly results.

Microsoft will accelerate the missteps for a while as mass exodus from campus increases and then company misses new trends. Analysts will come calling to disintegrate the company ( same as IBM or other big companies). Board will then bring an executive who will be outsider and change the mindset and ask Microsoft to emphasize on its strength and milk its monopoly of Windows.


A challenge for Apple, next chapter...

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Vision/Execution/ Apple and Nike

Vision and Execution:


Is there a person/company who had both vision and execution? It’s asking to keep water and air together in bottle and trying to mix them. Both will be there and won’t mix with each other. If you insert too much water in the jar air will run out or vice versa. But both are essential to survival.

Every company should try to balance both of them to keep it alive and moving forward. Obsession with one will kill you eventually. Execution is awesome but lacking vision will leave you empty handed to act in future. This process is gradual and not an instant, so realization is waking up on that decline curve and sees how long it has gone. If its worth to get everything right again or not. Companies die or re-invent themselves in these scenarios.

AMD other one after Engineering vision needed Hector Ruiz's execution. Story is still unfolding in front of us.

Vision also has same problems; too much thinking leaves no time to implement it better. If people don't get everyday food to eat, they can not dream of future as daily needs take first priority. The visionary himself is from separate class who can like a rishi go on without food for years to attain his cherished goal of his ultimate salvation.

Technology and Business:


Carly's vision (she was not good at execution) with Hurd's execution (he disdains vision). HP suffered for a while but now is securely in race to get ahead of its competitor due to perfect Mark Hurd's execution of Carly's long sighted vision's But Mark will need to give HP a vision before he leaves HP and that will be next CEO. Meantime during his tenure he'll drive vision of HP's R&D (consumer, enterprise) and implement it perfectly.

IBM under Lou Gesterner was all about execution in service market, that’s why other divisions suffered as they needed a vision for their future. Sam has vision but lacks execution rigor like IBM's ex-CEO. His vision has brought back Microelectronics back into business, Linux gaining ground on its competitors but services is suffering. I think Lou knew when he left IBM that in coming future IBM wont need execution rigor as it can get someone to get it right later down the lane, but would need a new big market vision and someone who can put them there at the start point and make it run on the initial blast for a while. Sam must have been the guy. Rest is happening in front of us.

Apple and Nike:

Steve Jobs, as always, is master of putting headlines which people dissect for every obvious reason. But then he won’t be marketing genius if people can think about what he is thinking. The genius in him won’t tie up with Nike for that reason.

Let’s look from another angle, which seems more convincing, more revenue generating and more consumers penetrating.

Medical area.

If Nike starts selling shoes with IPOD compatibility, it won’t make any difference to Apple as shoes are sold by Nike. Ipods don’t sell on notion that they'll store my health data from my shoes. IPODs sell as complete package of human indenspibility of technology from his/her everyday life.

If it’s a publicity stunt then it wouldn’t have been done.

Let’s take this one step further. As people are becoming more health conscious, they are exercising more, visiting health clinics and health practitioners more. This trend is growing day by day as obesity and baby boomer phenomenon is coming to light. It'll be hard to track daily what these people do and how their health works. IPOD is supposed to capture all that data with the help of Nike shoes. Nike is no 1 in market share worldwide for shoes. (MARKET LEADER).

So IPOD is for doctors and health practitioners to retrieve data to their system for the health analysis. This means more adoption for ITUNES, which further takes a set number of influential consumer classes into ILIFE. The community targeted here is very rich comparatively and don’t have any issues spending that loads of money on coolest gadgets, which work seamlessly in their personal and professional life. APPLE is simply the coolest product. Today a health practitioner may install Itune on your normal PC, but as compelling complete package offering a doctor/health practitioner may buy MAC mini, MAC book, IPOD. It brings more customers, more revenue to Apple and apple gets more entrenched into people's normal day to day lifestyle, which resonates Steve's ultimate vision “IPOD should be indisnsepble part of every person's life". Hence it completes the circle that Nike sells more shoes and apple sells more of ILIFE offerings.



Technology company DNA difference

Socialism and Capitalism, Apple and Dell's DNA difference

I recently read the Time magazine article about outsourcing. It'll happen at faster rate than expected as health care cost rises here. For medicos, I came up with following line:

“Globalization in the form of socialism where you take money from few elite concentrated at a place via market competition and distributes it among many other in same profession around the world.” (Normalization in a profession)

Just my thinking.


An year ago I thought about Dell's strategy of Kiosk and thought malls shops were important looking at Apple store its location in mall, place, color, style. And Dell this week announced about opening stores in upscale malls. I am still doubtful about it as what Apple did was entirely different than opening upscale malls. Sometimes to be fast follower is not good. To win the race on car track, you need to know the track (VISION). Sharp turns cause unexpected delays, slowdowns which cause more wear and tear of car ( OPEX increase in Company financials). You expect the last mile of race is straight road ahead and assume to leap frog the cars ahead of you. It wont be the same anymore as the cars ahead are not fools to make that mistake again and as they know the path they may try to get an sharp turn which may create havoc for you and a chance of NO recovery at all.

Its funny that everybody in world today is raving about IPOD success from last 2 years. I saw Steve introducing it on one of news channel in 2001 and saying "this is future, I am holding". No one cared even commentators were laughing at him, thinking of Steve with previous Apple experience guy desperate to get attention. Knowing his history of success and failures in technology, I knew at that moment he is going to spin it for success subject to the condition that there should be no past mistakes of earlier smashit products. He is exactly following the path where he is not committing past errors. Complete authority and move by taking everyone with him in consumer market (content, sellers) for his product rather than alienating them previously in Macintosh. Also, you can say he wasnt in apple when company failed.



Will write my thoughts more later.

- Dhiraj

Predict technology business trends: Socialism and Capitalism, Apple and Dell's DNA difference

Predict technology business trends: Socialism and Capitalism, Apple and Dell's DNA difference

Saturday, May 06, 2006


I, Dhiraj Sehgal, today start my blog and give away to my traditional method of writing on papers, diaries, back of bills. It is start of assembling my thoughts at one place.

What has made me always uncomfortable about blogging is sharing my thoughts, motivation and discussion with everyone. I have always welcomed criticism but wary of people who like endless argument without respecting other person's belief, ideas and thoughts.


There are various types of people in the world who have different opinions. Everyone including me want to be respected for my living, beliefs, view and opinion.
" To be respected you have to respect" and thats makes the process unfold for everyone's growth.